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2019–20 Australian region cyclone season (Olo72)
The 2019–20 Australian region cyclone season was a slightly above average tropical cyclone season. The season officially ran from November 1, 2019, to April 30, 2020, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2019, and June 30, 2020, and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones were officially monitored, by one of the five Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) that are operated in this region. Three of the five centres are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Perth, Darwin, and Brisbane, while the other two are operated by the National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea in Port Moresby and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics in Jakarta, Indonesia. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services, including Météo-France, also monitored the basin during the season. 7 Seasonal forecasts Ahead of the cyclone season, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), the New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and various other Pacific Meteorological services, all contributed towards the Island Climate Update tropical cyclone outlook that was released during October 2019. The outlook took into account the ENSO neutral conditions that had been observed across the Pacific and analogue seasons with ENSO neutral conditions occurring during the season. The outlook called for an above average number of tropical cyclones for the 2019–20 season, with eight to twelve named tropical cyclones, to occur between 135°E and 120°W compared to an average of 10. At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to become category 3 severe tropical cyclones, while three could become category 4 severe tropical cyclones, they also noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was likely to occur. In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the BoM issued eight seasonal forecasts during October 2019, for the Australian region and the Southern Pacific with each forecast covering the whole tropical cyclone year. Each forecast issued took into account the current neutral ENSO conditions that were forecast to continue during the season. For the basin as a whole they predicted that there was a 75% chance that the season would be near its average of around 10 tropical cyclones. For the Western region between 90°E and 125°E, the BoM forecast that the area would see activity near to or slightly below the average of 7, with a 50% chance of an above average cyclone season. TCWC Perth also noted that there was a likelihood of two tropical cyclones and a significant likelihood of at least one severe tropical cyclone impacting Western Australia. For the North-Western subregion between 105°E and 130°E, it was predicted that activity would be below normal with a 35% chance of above average tropical cyclone activity. The Northern Territory which was defined as being between as being 125°E and 142.5°E had a 40% chance of an above average season, with TCWC Darwin noting that all of the climate drivers were pointing towards a typical tropical cyclone season for Northern Australia. The Eastern region between 142.5°E and 160°E had a 70% chance of having an above average tropical cyclone season. The BoM also issued 3 seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific between 142.5°E and 120°W, one for the Western Southern Pacific region between 142.5°E and 165°E and one for the Eastern Southern Pacific region between 165°E and 120°W. They noted that the tropical Pacific Ocean was currently experiencing neutral ENSO conditions which meant that there was no strong shift expected in the average location of tropical cyclone formation. They also noted that there was nothing in the broad climate drivers to suggest anything, but a typical tropical cyclone season for the South Pacific. As a result, they predicted that the region as a whole, would experience near average tropical cyclone activity during the coming season with a 75% chance of it being above average. The Western region was predicted to have 76% chance of being above average while the Eastern region had a 54% chance of being above average. During November 2019 the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), issued seasonal forecasts for the whole basin and one each for the regions to the east and west of 135°E. For the overall basin they predicted that tropical cyclone activity in the entire Australian region was likely to be near normal with 13 tropical cyclones predicted to occur. However, it was suggested that the season could be above average, two of the indicators they had used to predict the season suggested below average activity. For the Western region it was predicted that activity would be near normal with 13 tropical cyclones occurring, while the Eastern region was predicted to have 7 tropical cyclones occurring. Timeline under construction ImageSize = width:795 height:250 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/09/2013 till:01/05/2014 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/09/2013 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TL value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Low_=_<63_km/h_(<39_mph) id:C1 value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Category_1_=_63-87_km/h_(39-54_mph) id:C2 value:rgb(0.80,1,1) legend:Category_2_=_88-142_km/h_(55-74_mph) id:C3 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_3_=_143-158-km/h_(75-98_mph) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_4_=_159-204_km/h_(99-127_mph) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥205_km/h_(≥128_mph) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:01/10/2013 till:05/10/2013 color:TL text:"01U" from:07/10/2013 till:14/10/2013 color:C1 text:"Wallace" from:19/11/2013 till:30/11/2013 color:C5 text:"Alu" from:08/12/2013 till:12/12/2013 color:TL text:"04U" from:17/12/2013 till:24/12/2013 color:C1 text:"Owen" from:02/01/2014 till:05/01/2014 color:C3 text:"Penny" from:07/01/2014 till:22/01/2014 color:C4 text:"Ryley" from:25/01/2014 till:30/01/2014 color:C4 text:"Savannah" barset:break from:29/01/2014 till:22/02/2014 color:C5 text:"Trevor" from:03/03/2014 till:07/03/2014 color:TL text:"10U" from:20/03/2014 till:23/03/2014 color:TL text:"11U" from:24/04/2014 till:28/04/2014 color:C4 text:"Veronica" bar:Month width:6 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/09/2013 till:01/10/2013 text:September from:01/10/2013 till:01/11/2013 text:October from:01/11/2013 till:01/12/2013 text:November from:01/12/2013 till:01/01/2014 text:December from:01/01/2014 till:01/02/2014 text:January from:01/02/2014 till:01/03/2014 text:February from:01/03/2014 till:01/04/2014 text:March from:01/04/2014 till:01/05/2014 text:April TextData = pos:(569,23) text:"(For further details, please see" pos:(713,23) text:"scales)" Storms Tropical Cyclone Wallace Tropical Cyclone Teratai Tropical Low 11U Severe Tropical Cyclone Ann Severe Tropical Cyclone Blake Tropical Cyclone Claudia Severe Tropical Cyclone Damien Severe Tropical Cyclone Esther Tropical Cyclone Ferdinand Tropical Low 18U Severe Tropical Cyclone Gretel Severe Tropical Cyclone Harold-Gabekile Severe Tropical Cyclone Imogen Storm names Bureau of Meteorology Since the start of the 2008–09 season, there has only been one list that the Bureau of Meteorology have assigned names to tropical cyclones.However, the Bureau of Meteorology still operates the various TCWCs in Perth, Darwin & Brisbane. These monitor all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any in either TCWC Jakarta's or Port Moresby's area of responsibility. The next 12 names on the naming list are listed here below. TCWC Jakarta TCWC Jakarta monitors Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11S and from 90E to 145E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list. TCWC Port Moresby Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007. As names are assigned in a random order the whole list is shown below. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) ACE is the result of a storm's winds multiplied by how long it lasted for, so storms or subtropical storms (originally not included until 2012) that lasted a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, have higher ACE totals. Tropical depressions are not included in the ACE totals. Category:Australian basin Category:Subtropical Cyclones Category:Active hurricane seasons Category:Cyclones Category:Strong Storms Category:Olo72 Category:Australian region cyclone seasons